DM-X CBM is priced at full BTU-parity with imported LPG. Azolla feedstock is grown on rented land by DM-XTech's own cultivation teams — giving complete supply chain control and eliminating third-party feedstock pricing risk. Corporate income tax is charged at the standard 25% rate with no exemption assumed. Under these fully commercial, conservative conditions, the project delivers a DSCR that exceeds bank minimums in every year.
DM-X CBM is not priced at a premium or discount — it is priced to deliver exactly the same useful heat energy per peso as the imported LPG it replaces. This is verifiable, fair to consumers, and requires no government subsidy to be commercially viable for DM-XTech.
DM-XTech will cultivate its own azolla supply by leasing suitable farmland — shallow wetlands, rice paddies, fish pond complexes — from landowners in the vicinity of each processing hub. DM-XTech's cultivation teams manage everything: inoculant deployment, water management, harvesting, and transport to the plant. This is a fully vertically integrated feedstock model.
Why not buy from farmers? Fresh azolla is currently sold on Instagram by hobbyists at ₱100/kg — marketed as "seedlings" to aquarists and home gardeners. Azolla cultivation at industrial scale for biogas is not yet established in the Philippines, so this hobbyist price is the prevailing public reference. Once commercial-scale demand becomes visible, landowners or aspiring suppliers will inevitably cite this benchmark in any supply negotiation. Locking feedstock cost to a third-party reference price of ₱100/kg would make the project completely unviable (feedstock cost alone would be ₱4,760/Nm³ — nearly 100× the selling price). By cultivating on rented land with own staff, DM-XTech controls its cost structure entirely and is immune to this dynamic.
Scale-up cost advantage: As rented land area grows, unit costs fall. Larger blocks of contiguous land attract lower rental rates per hectare. Harvest equipment and transport are shared across a larger production area. Cultivation expertise improves yield per hectare over successive seasons. The financial model uses conservative flat-rate costs throughout — meaning actual unit cost reduction at scale is an unmodelled upside.
Azolla-to-CBM conversion: 1 kg fresh azolla → 10% DM → 75% VS → 280 L CH₄/kg VS → 0.021 Nm³ CH₄/kg fresh. Each Nm³ CBM requires 47.6 kg fresh azolla. Total cultivation cost at ₱0.40/kg equivalent = ₱19.04/Nm³. Selling price: ₱52.00/Nm³. Margin above cultivation cost: ₱32.96/Nm³ (63.4%).
| Cultivation Cost Assumptions IN-HOUSE | |
|---|---|
| Land rental rate (paddy / wetland) | ₱40,000–₱50,000 / ha / yr |
| Cultivation labor (harvest, water mgt.) | ₱10,000–₱20,000 / ha / yr |
| Inputs (inoculant top-up, minor nutrients) | ~₱2,000 / ha / yr |
| Total cultivation cost per ha | ≈ ₱60,000 / ha / yr |
| Azolla yield (Philippine tropical) | 150 t fresh / ha / yr |
| Equivalent cost per kg fresh azolla | ₱0.40 / kg |
| DM content · Volatile solids | 10% DM · 75% VS |
| Methane yield | 280 L CH₄ / kg VS |
| Fresh azolla per Nm³ CBM | 47.6 kg |
| Cultivation cost per Nm³ CBM | ₱19.04 |
| All other OPEX per Nm³ | ~₱14.60 |
| Total OPEX per Nm³ CBM | ~₱33.64 |
| CBM selling price | ₱52.00 |
| EBITDA per Nm³ | ~₱18.36 (35.3%) |
Equivalent to 67–114 contiguous or clustered hectares of leased paddy / wetland. Suitable land is available in Nueva Ecija, Batangas, and Bicol at rental rates well within the ₱40–50K/ha/yr assumption. At scale (Bicol 525-ha site), unit rental cost per tonne produced falls further.
All financial projections apply Philippine corporate income tax at the standard 25% rate (CREATE Act, Republic Act 11534) with no assumption of any tax holiday, exemption, or deduction beyond standard allowable depreciation and interest expense. This is the conservative base case for bank credit assessment purposes.
DM-XTech will separately pursue RA 9513 (Renewable Energy Act) registration, which grants a 7-year Income Tax Holiday for qualified biomethane projects. If approved, this would improve after-tax cash flows by ₱300,000–₱900,000 per year and increase equity IRR above the figures presented here. This upside is fully excluded from the base case and does not affect loan serviceability analysis.
Standard CIT under CREATE Act. Applied to EBT in all years where taxable income is positive.
7-year Income Tax Holiday if RE registration is granted. This is a bonus, not a dependency.
DM-XTech requests a term loan of ₱12,000,000 to co-finance construction and commissioning of the DM-X CBM gas-processing plant — specifically the commercial biodigesters, PWS water scrubbing system, CBM compressor train, cylinder filling infrastructure, and associated civil and electrical works.
The 18 reinforced-concrete cultivation tanks — the most capital-intensive civil infrastructure — have already been fully constructed from proponent equity and are operational with azolla established. The bank's loan capital goes directly into productive, revenue-generating processing equipment from Day 1 of drawdown.
Critical loan readiness advantage: DM-XTech will identify and secure land leases during the 6-month construction/commissioning period. Azolla inoculant is established on leased paddies before the processing plant is commissioned. By the time the first cylinder is filled, the cultivation supply chain is already producing. There is no "chicken-and-egg" feedstock risk at commissioning — DM-XTech controls both ends of the chain.
Year 2 as binding DSCR year: Under straight-line amortization, Year 2 carries the highest debt service (₱2.67M — full principal + full interest on unamortized ₱12M balance) while utilization is still ramping (64%). Year 2 DSCR of 1.41× is comfortably above the 1.25× minimum but is the project's binding year. From Year 3 onwards, rising utilization and declining interest combine to lift DSCR to 1.80× (Y3), 2.43× (Y4), and 2.64× (Y5). The proponent is open to discussing sculpted amortization or a 24-month grace period with the bank to further widen Year 2 buffer if preferred.
| Term | Detail |
|---|---|
| Loan Amount Requested | ₱12,000,000 |
| Proponent Equity (already deployed) | ₱5,000,000 (29.4%) |
| Loan-to-Total-Cost Ratio | 70.6% |
| Interest Rate | 8.0% p.a. fixed |
| Tenor | 8 years (1 year grace + 7 years amortization) |
| Principal Grace Period | 12 months from drawdown |
| Annual principal repayment (Y2–Y8) | ₱1,714,286 (straight-line) |
| Year 1 debt service (grace, interest only) | ₱960,000 |
| Year 2 debt service (peak) | ₱2,674,286 |
| Year 8 debt service (final) | ₱1,851,427 |
| Year 1 DSCR (grace period) | 2.43× (min 1.25×) |
| Year 2 DSCR (peak debt service) | 1.41× |
| Year 5 DSCR | 2.64× |
| Collateral Coverage Ratio | 1.50× (₱18.06M / ₱12M) |
| CAPEX Category | Amount (₱) | % |
|---|---|---|
| A — Commercial Biodigesters (2 × 200 m³ CSTR) | 2,450,000 | 14.4% |
| B — PWS Scrubbing System (K-101, T-101, vessels) | 2,200,000 | 12.9% |
| C — CBM Compressor + Cylinder Filling (K-102, V-104) | 2,100,000 | 12.4% |
| D — CBM Cylinders (200 × 50L, 200 bar) + Delivery Vehicle | 1,800,000 | 10.6% |
| E — Piping, Valves, Instruments & Controls | 1,350,000 | 7.9% |
| F — Civil, Structural & Electrical Works | 1,200,000 | 7.1% |
| G — Engineering, Procurement & Commissioning | 900,000 | 5.3% |
| Direct Project Cost | 12,000,000 | 70.6% |
| Contingency (12%) | 1,440,000 | 8.5% |
| Owner's Costs, Permits & Legal | 560,000 | 3.3% |
| Working Capital (3 months OPEX) | 2,000,000 | 11.8% |
| Loan Arrangement & Interest Reserve | 1,000,000 | 5.9% |
| Total Project Cost | ₱17,000,000 | 100% |
The 18 concrete cultivation tanks (proponent equity, replacement value ~₱4.5M) are excluded from the above and constitute additional security for the lender.
Cultivation cost: 320,000 Nm³ × 47.6 kg/Nm³ × ₱0.40/kg equivalent = ₱6,093,000. Breakdown: ~₱4.8M land rental (101 ha × ₱47,500/ha) + ~₱1.3M cultivation labor and inputs. Power: 320,000 Nm³ × 1.0 kWh × ₱9.00/kWh = ₱2,880,000.
Year 1 EBT is a small loss due to commissioning ramp (48% utilization). No income tax is payable on a loss year. From Year 2, the project is profitable and tax-paying. DSCR exceeds 1.25× in all years. CBM price rises slightly in Years 4–5 tracking LPG at projected ₱68/kg.
| Line Item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output (Nm³/year) | 210,000 | 280,000 | 320,000 | 350,000 | 360,000 |
| Capacity Utilization | 48% | 64% | 73% | 80% | 82% |
| CBM Price (₱/Nm³, BTU parity) | 52.00 | 52.00 | 52.00 | 54.00 | 54.00 |
| Revenue (₱) | 10,920,000 | 14,560,000 | 16,640,000 | 18,900,000 | 19,440,000 |
| Azolla Cultivation (land rental + labor) IN-HOUSE | (4,000,000) | (5,331,000) | (6,093,000) | (6,664,000) | (6,854,000) |
| Power & Utilities | (1,890,000) | (2,520,000) | (2,880,000) | (3,150,000) | (3,240,000) |
| Labor (10 FTEs avg.) | (1,260,000) | (1,300,000) | (1,300,000) | (1,350,000) | (1,400,000) |
| Maintenance (2% CAPEX, escalating) | (340,000) | (357,000) | (375,000) | (394,000) | (414,000) |
| Distribution & Transport | (600,000) | (780,000) | (900,000) | (960,000) | (984,000) |
| Insurance, Admin & Overhead | (500,000) | (520,000) | (540,000) | (560,000) | (580,000) |
| Total OPEX (₱) | (8,590,000) | (10,808,000) | (12,088,000) | (13,078,000) | (13,472,000) |
| EBITDA (₱) | 2,330,000 | 3,752,000 | 4,552,000 | 5,822,000 | 5,968,000 |
| EBITDA Margin | 21.3% | 25.8% | 27.4% | 30.8% | 30.7% |
| Depreciation (₱17M ÷ 10 years) | (1,700,000) | (1,700,000) | (1,700,000) | (1,700,000) | (1,700,000) |
| Interest Expense (8% on beg. balance) | (960,000) | (960,000) | (822,857) | (685,714) | (548,571) |
| Earnings Before Tax (EBT) | (330,000) | 1,092,000 | 2,029,143 | 3,436,286 | 3,719,429 |
| Income Tax @ 25% No ITH | — (loss year) | (273,000) | (507,286) | (859,072) | (929,857) |
| Net Income (₱) | (330,000) | 819,000 | 1,521,857 | 2,577,214 | 2,789,572 |
| Annual Debt Service (₱) | 960,000 (grace) | 2,674,286 | 2,537,143 | 2,400,000 | 2,262,857 |
| DSCR (EBITDA ÷ Debt Service) | 2.43× ✓ | 1.41× ✓ | 1.80× ✓ | 2.43× ✓ | 2.64× ✓ |
Year 1 net loss (₱330,000) is a paper loss after interest and depreciation. EBITDA is positive at ₱2.33M, comfortably covering interest-only debt service of ₱960,000 (DSCR 2.43×). Principal repayment begins Year 2 with full ₱12M balance still outstanding, making Year 2 the peak debt-service year (₱2.67M). Debt service then declines each year as principal is amortized. Azolla cultivation cost formula: Nm³/yr × 47.6 kg/Nm³ × ₱0.40/kg equivalent (land rental + labor). DSCR minimum bank threshold: 1.25×. All years comply.
The table below reports DSCR in Year 2 (the peak debt-service year at the lowest utilization — the binding constraint) and Year 3 (first year of full operations at declining debt service). Banks typically focus on the weakest year; in this project that is always Year 2.
| Scenario | Y2 DSCR | Y3 DSCR | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case ₱52/Nm³ · ₱0.40/kg equiv. · 64% → 73% util. |
1.41× | 1.80× | ✔ Above min in both years |
| CBM price −5% → ₱49.40/Nm³ (LPG softens to ₱61.75/kg) |
1.14× | 1.48× | ⚠ Y2 tight · Y3 safe |
| CBM price −10% → ₱46.80/Nm³ | 0.86× | 1.14× | ✗ Breach Y2 & Y3 |
| Cultivation cost +15% → ₱0.46/kg (land rental pressure) |
1.11× | 1.44× | ⚠ Y2 tight · Y3 safe |
| Cultivation cost +25% → ₱0.50/kg | 0.91× | 1.20× | ✗ Breach Y2 |
| Utilization −10% (Y2 → 58%) | 1.19× | 1.57× | ⚠ Y2 tight · Y3 safe |
| Utilization +10% (Y2 → 70%) | 1.63× | 1.97× | ✔ Safe |
| Power cost +30% → ₱11.70/kWh | 1.13× | 1.46× | ⚠ Y2 tight · Y3 safe |
Break-even CBM price at Year 2 DSCR = 1.25×: Under base-case volumes and cultivation cost, the minimum CBM price to keep Year 2 DSCR at 1.25× is approximately ₱50.50/Nm³ (LPG parity at ₱63/kg). At Year 3 steady state, break-even is ₱47.70/Nm³ (LPG parity at ₱59.60/kg). The model's ₱65/kg LPG reference is already conservative; actual DOE-monitored Philippine LPG retail ranges ₱85–130/kg — meaning the project's real-world headroom is substantially larger than the ~3% (Y2) and ~8% (Y3) computed against the model reference.
Recommended loan structuring to widen Year 2 buffer: Year 2 DSCR tightness is a timing issue — commissioning ramp-up coincides with peak debt service. Two optional bank-side accommodations eliminate this stress without changing underlying economics: (a) extending the principal grace period from 12 to 24 months so that Year 2 carries only interest at ₱960K (Year 2 DSCR then rises to ~3.9×), or (b) sculpted amortization where Year 2 principal is 50% of the straight-line amount and Year 5+ makes it up. Both keep total interest costs essentially unchanged but align repayment profile with cash-flow ramp. The proponent is fully open to either structure.
| Asset | Lending Value (₱) |
|---|---|
| Process plant & equipment (85% LTV) | 7,650,000 |
| CBM cylinders — 200 units (85% LTV) | 918,750 |
| Collection / delivery vehicle (80% LTV) | 488,000 |
| 18 concrete cultivation tanks (75% LTV) | 3,375,000 |
| Real property / agricultural land (if offered) | 5,000,000 |
| Land lease improvements & cultivation equipment (70% LTV) | 624,000 |
| Total Collateral (lending value) | ₱18,055,750 |
| Coverage Ratio (vs ₱12M loan) | 1.505× ✓ |
RA 9513 upside (not in base case): Income Tax Holiday of 7 years, if granted, saves approximately ₱270K–₱930K in annual corporate income tax (Years 2–7). This flows through to net income and equity returns — lifting equity IRR from ~36% to ~42% — though it does not change the EBITDA-based DSCR since EBITDA is pre-tax. The loan is serviceability-proven without this benefit.
Carbon credit upside (not in base case): Each tonne of LPG displaced avoids ~3 tCO₂e. Gold Standard VER credits at ~₱580/tCO₂e add an estimated ₱600,000–₱800,000/year in additional revenue at Year 3–5 scale. Also excluded from the base case.
| Period | Beg. Balance (₱) | Principal (₱) | Interest @ 8% (₱) | Total Debt Service (₱) | End Balance (₱) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (grace — interest only) | 12,000,000 | — | 960,000 | 960,000 | 12,000,000 |
| Year 2 | 12,000,000 | 1,714,286 | 960,000 | 2,674,286 | 10,285,714 |
| Year 3 | 10,285,714 | 1,714,286 | 822,857 | 2,537,143 | 8,571,428 |
| Year 4 | 8,571,428 | 1,714,286 | 685,714 | 2,400,000 | 6,857,142 |
| Year 5 | 6,857,142 | 1,714,286 | 548,571 | 2,262,857 | 5,142,856 |
| Year 6 | 5,142,856 | 1,714,286 | 411,428 | 2,125,714 | 3,428,570 |
| Year 7 | 3,428,570 | 1,714,286 | 274,286 | 1,988,572 | 1,714,284 |
| Year 8 (final) | 1,714,284 | 1,714,284 | 137,143 | 1,851,427 | — |
| Totals (Years 1–8) | — | 12,000,000 | 4,800,000 | 16,800,000 | — |
Total financing cost in context: ₱4,800,000 total interest on a ₱12M loan = 40% financing premium. Over the same 5 years, projected EBITDA totals ₱22,424,000 — covering the entire financing cost 4.7× over, with substantial surplus for taxes, depreciation recovery, and proponent return.
This section sets out the financial covenants DM-XTech anticipates accepting on the ₱12M facility, the monitoring framework that supports them, and the cure mechanics when a covenant is tested close to its threshold. The intent is to pre-specify these terms clearly so that the credit committee can confirm comfort with them before loan documentation begins, rather than discovering them late in the process.
| Covenant | Threshold | Rationale & Base-case Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum Debt Service Coverage Ratio | ≥ 1.25× trailing 12-mo | Standard project-finance minimum. Base case: 1.41× Y2 (binding), rising to 2.64× Y5. |
| Maximum Debt / EBITDA | ≤ 4.0× at year-end | Starting ratio Y1 ≈ 5.2× (commissioning ramp), falling to 2.9× Y2, below 1.5× by Y5. |
| CAPEX lock-up | ≤ ₱500K discretionary p.a. | Prevents cash being diverted from debt service to new expansion capex. Maintenance capex (already budgeted at ₱340k–₱414k/yr in the P&L) exempt. |
| Distribution test | DSCR ≥ 1.50× for 12 mo prior | Proponent equity distributions blocked unless trailing-year DSCR ≥ 1.50×. Practical effect: no distributions in Y2, meaningful distributions from Y3 onwards. |
| Cross-default | Material default on any other ₱5M+ facility | Standard protection. DM-XTech has no other material debt in place. |
| Change of control | Mandatory prepayment | ≥ 50% change in ownership triggers lender consent or prepayment. Protects lender from unforeseen counterparty change. |
| Insurance maintenance | Public liability ≥ ₱5M · BI ≥ ₱3M | Already budgeted in OPEX at ~₱100k/yr total premium. Annual certification to lender. |
| Permit & license maintenance | Good standing on DOE, ERC, DENR, BIR | Standard operating requirement. No material permit risk at Phase 1 scale. |
Business model evolution — why land rental, not contract farming: Earlier drafts of this model assumed azolla would be sourced through Product Offtake Agreements (POAs) with surrounding farmers. This approach was reconsidered because fresh azolla is currently listed at ₱100/kg on Instagram by Philippine hobbyists selling it as aquarium "seedlings." As commercial-scale azolla demand becomes visible, any supply negotiation with third-party farmers would be anchored to this public reference price — making feedstock cost unmanageable. By renting land and cultivating with its own teams, DM-XTech locks in a cost structure of ₱0.40/kg equivalent (land + labor) that is fully independent of any spot market. The current model, with full in-house cultivation cost, 25% CIT, and actual declining-balance debt service, delivers a ~36% equity IRR and Year 2 minimum DSCR of 1.41× — conservative, honest, and defensible to both banks and regulators.
Work with the model directly below — the interactive financial model in the next section lets you change any input (LPG price, cultivation cost, utilization, loan terms, tax rate) and see every output update in real time. The same model is also available as a downloadable Excel workbook (DMXTech_CBM_Financial_Model.xlsx) with 8 linked sheets including detailed Debt Schedule, Sensitivity Analysis, and Dashboard — for users who prefer offline analysis.
For credit-committee review and independent due diligence: every default value used in the financial model above, organised by domain, with its source and sensitivity impact. Impact is expressed as: magnitude of Year-2 DSCR movement per 10% change in the input parameter, holding everything else constant. High-impact parameters are what a thorough sensitivity analysis should focus on. The interactive model in the next section allows live exploration of any combination.
| Parameter | Value | Source / Basis | Y2 DSCR impact per +10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Azolla yield | 150 t fresh / ha / yr | Conservative tropical baseline. Philippine field trials report 120–200 t/ha/yr. See algae.html. | ≈ ± 0.06× |
| Dry-matter content | 10% of fresh | Standard azolla value. algae.html · FAO review of azolla biology (2018). | ≈ ± 0.06× |
| Volatile solids fraction | 75% of DM | Standard herbaceous biomass. biodigester.html. | ≈ ± 0.04× |
| Methane yield | 280 L CH₄ / kg VS | Upper end of azolla-biodigestion literature (220–280 L/kg VS). VDI 4630 methodology. | ≈ ± 0.06× |
| Fresh azolla per Nm³ CBM | 47.6 kg | Derived: 1 / (0.10 × 0.75 × 0.280) ÷ 0.98 PWS recovery. | (derived) |
| PWS methane recovery | 98% | Industry-standard for pressurised water scrubbing · ≤ 2% methane slip. | ≈ ± 0.01× |
| Parameter | Value | Source / Basis | Y2 DSCR impact per +10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land rental rate | ₱47,500 / ha / yr | Midpoint of surveyed rates for marginal wetland / rice paddy / fish pond land in cultivation-hub candidate provinces. CPI-indexed in the model. | ≈ ± 0.14× |
| Cultivation labor | ₱10,000–20,000 / ha / yr | Two cultivation staff per 8–10 ha block, part-time, at PH agricultural minimum wage + supervision. | ≈ ± 0.04× |
| Total cultivation cost equivalent | ₱0.40 / kg fresh | Derived: ~₱60,000/ha ÷ 150 t/ha yield. Fully loaded with labour and inputs. | ≈ ± 0.17× |
| Power consumption | 1.0 kWh / Nm³ CBM | K-101 + K-102 combined specific power. Verified against biodigester.html compressor specs (15 + 18.5 kW running at 50 Nm³/h). | ≈ ± 0.09× |
| Power cost | ₱9.00 / kWh | Indicative commercial-industrial rate in Luzon grid. Subject to local utility tariff. | ≈ ± 0.09× |
| Labor (10 FTE hub staffing) | ₱1.26M–1.40M / yr | Plant manager + 3 shift operators + 2 mechanics + 2 cylinder delivery + 2 admin. PH salary benchmarks. | ≈ ± 0.04× |
| Maintenance | 2% CAPEX, escalating | Standard project-finance assumption for industrial gas plant. Vendor warranty covers Year 1 major items. | ≈ ± 0.01× |
| Parameter | Value | Source / Basis | Y2 DSCR impact per +10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| LPG reference price (Y1–3) | ₱65 / kg | Conservative model reference. Actual DOE-monitored retail: ₱85–130/kg (March 2026 monitor). | (drives CBM price) |
| LPG reference price (Y4–5) | ₱68 / kg | Conservative 4.6% escalation Y4 → Y5. Actual PH retail likely higher given conflict-driven price trajectory. | (drives CBM price) |
| LPG HHV (propane/butane blend) | 47,400 BTU / kg (50 MJ/kg) | Standard thermochemical value. Verified on propane/butane 60:40 blend typical of PH LPG mix. | (fixed physical) |
| CBM HHV (≥97% CH₄) | 37,760 BTU / Nm³ (39.8 MJ/Nm³) | Standard thermochemical value for biomethane at ≥97% CH₄ purity. | (fixed physical) |
| CBM selling price Y1–3 | ₱52.00 / Nm³ | Derived: ₱65/kg × (47,400 ÷ 37,760) ÷ ... = ₱51.74 rounded to ₱52.00. Full BTU parity with LPG. | ≈ ± 1.26× |
| CBM selling price Y4–5 | ₱54.00 / Nm³ | Derived: same BTU-parity calculation applied to ₱68/kg LPG reference. | (same as above) |
| Utilization (ramp Y1–5) | 48% · 64% · 73% · 80% · 82% | Commissioning ramp calibrated to pilot.html Year-1 monthly output profile. Y5 82% is steady-state target for a 50 Nm³/h hub. | ≈ ± 0.14× |
| Nameplate capacity | 50 Nm³/h CBM | Standard hub size per v3.3 model. 438,000 Nm³/yr at 100% util. biodigester.html. | (scales revenue) |
| Parameter | Value | Source / Basis | Y2 DSCR impact per +10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total CAPEX | ₱17,000,000 | Direct ₱12M (processing chain) + ₱1.44M contingency + ₱560K owner's costs + ₱2M working capital + ₱1M loan arrangement & interest reserve. See detailed breakdown above. | (drives debt service) |
| Bank loan principal | ₱12,000,000 | 70.6% of total CAPEX. Standard project-finance gearing for a first-of-its-kind but commercially proven technology. | ≈ ± 0.13× |
| Proponent equity | ₱5,000,000+ (29.4%) | Already deployed — 18 reinforced-concrete tanks + azolla cultivation establishment + land improvements. | (already deployed) |
| Interest rate (fixed) | 8.0% p.a. | Indicative commercial term-loan rate for a secured, asset-backed project in the Philippines. Assumed fixed for tenor. | ≈ ± 0.04× |
| Loan tenor | 8 years | 1-year grace (interest only) + 7-year straight-line amortization. | (drives DS profile) |
| Principal grace period | 12 months | Accommodates commissioning ramp in Year 1. See pilot.html operational ramp. | (Y1 DSCR driver) |
| Corporate income tax rate | 25% (CREATE Act) | Standard PH CIT under the CREATE Act. No Income Tax Holiday assumed in base case (RA 9513 ITH treated as upside only). | (affects net income, not DSCR) |
| Depreciation | 10 years, straight-line | Standard industrial plant life. ₱17M ÷ 10 = ₱1.7M annual non-cash charge. | (non-cash, tax-only) |
| Discount rate (NPV) | 12% p.a. | Proponent's target equity hurdle rate. Reasonable for a risk-adjusted project at this maturity. | (NPV only) |
The same financial model as the Excel workbook, fully embedded in the browser. Adjust LPG price, land rental, cultivation labor, plant utilization, loan terms, or tax rate in the panel on the left — and the 5-year P&L, debt schedule, DSCR per year, and sensitivity heat map on the right update in real time. All calculations run client-side; nothing is sent anywhere.
All values are live-computed from the input panel on the left. DSCR row uses conditional shading: green = ≥1.50×, yellow = 1.25×–1.49×, red = below bank minimum of 1.25×.
Line-item allocation of the requested loan proceeds. Every peso flows into depreciable productive equipment on-site. No working-capital leakage, no offshore purchases of uncertain residual value. All equipment remains mortgaged to the lender at the line-item level for the duration of the loan.
| # | Line Item | Scope | Amount (₱) | % of Loan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PWS Biogas Upgrading Skid | Absorption column T-101, feed compressor K-101, flash vessel V-105, air stripper T-102, water circulation pumps P-101A/B, heat exchanger E-102, polishing caustic scrubber V-106, interconnecting piping, instrumentation | 4,200,000 | 35.0% |
| 2 | CBM Compression & Drying Train | Four-stage reciprocating compressor K-102 (18.5 kW, 200 bar discharge, 50 Nm³/h CBM), twin-tower desiccant dryer V-104, high-pressure buffer storage, interstage coolers, gas-quality analyser | 3,500,000 | 29.2% |
| 3 | Cylinder Filling Station | Manifold rack (6-position), priority-sequence fill controller, automatic weighing, high-pressure hoses, gas chromatograph sampling point, cylinder staging racks | 1,300,000 | 10.8% |
| 4 | Civil & Structural | Gas-tight process shed foundation and frame, bund walls, fire-compartment partition for K-102 room, vehicle-accessible cylinder staging bay, drainage | 1,200,000 | 10.0% |
| 5 | Electrical & Instrumentation | LV distribution panel, PLC + SCADA with remote monitoring, fixed gas-detection array (CH₄, H₂S, CO), emergency stops, earthing, lightning protection, uninterruptible control power | 900,000 | 7.5% |
| 6 | Biodigester Completion | Conversion of 2 tanks: gas-tight HDPE domes, gas holder, H₂S primary scrubber charge, slurry inlet/outlet controls, recirculation pump, thermistor array | 500,000 | 4.2% |
| 7 | Install, Commissioning, Training | Mechanical and electrical installation, performance testing, operator training (5 staff × 2 weeks), 1-year critical spares package, vendor site supervision | 400,000 | 3.3% |
| TOTAL LOAN DEPLOYMENT | Phase 1 gas processing infrastructure, commissioned turnkey | 12,000,000 | 100.0% |
Drawdown schedule (proposed): Tranche 1 — 30% on signing (civil works + long-lead equipment deposits). Tranche 2 — 40% on PWS skid delivery to site. Tranche 3 — 20% on mechanical completion. Tranche 4 — 10% on successful performance test and first CBM cylinder filled to spec. Each tranche released against engineer's progress certificate and invoice sight-copies.
Equity already deployed (not included above): ₱5,000,000+ in the 18 reinforced-concrete tanks, site preparation, Azolla culture establishment, land improvements, and legal/permit costs. This equity represents DM-XTech's first-loss cushion and is already at risk in the site. It is not drawn from the loan and materially de-risks the lender's position from Day 1 of drawdown.
A credible financial case names its risks openly. Each identified risk is paired with a concrete, implementable mitigation. Residual risk is the exposure remaining after the mitigation is in place. This register has been structured to match the risk-section format expected by the Development Bank of the Philippines and Landbank credit committees.
| # | Category · Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation Already Designed In | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Technical · Biodigester start-up delay. Methanogen population takes longer than the 90-day design window to stabilise. | Low–Med | Medium | Inoculum sourced from an established wastewater-treatment digester (proven culture). Twelve-month principal-payment grace period on the loan covers start-up lag. Two independent digester trains so one can be used to inoculate the other. Commissioning engineer contracted on performance-basis. | Low |
| R2 | Technical · PWS upgrading efficiency below spec. Product gas fails to reach ≥97% CH₄ specification consistently. | Low | Medium | PWS is the most mature biogas-upgrading technology in the world (60+ years of reference plants). Vendor performance guarantee at ≥97% CH₄ / ≤2% O₂. Downstream caustic polishing scrubber V-106 removes residual H₂S. Online gas chromatograph diverts off-spec gas back to feed until corrected. Operating data logged for warranty claims. | Low |
| R3 | Feedstock · Azolla cultivation disruption. Pest, pathogen, or water-quality incident reduces biomass yield. | Medium | Medium | 16 independent cultivation tanks — no single point of failure. A 25% cultivation shortfall still supports biodigester throughput. Seed culture held in covered reserve tank (biosecure). Leased-land feedstock diversification across multiple paddies provides further redundancy. Azolla regenerates to full coverage within 10–14 days of a clean restart. | Low–Med |
| R4 | Feedstock · Typhoon / extreme weather damage. Super-typhoon physical damage to tanks or cultivation mats. | Medium | Low–Med | Reinforced-concrete tanks are intrinsically cyclone-resistant. Tanks have overflow drains preventing flood-outs. Process equipment housed in engineered shed rated to Signal 3. Business-interruption insurance (₱3M cover) budgeted at ~₱35k/yr. Azolla mat recovers in 10–14 days from near-total loss. | Low |
| R5 | Market · CBM price below breakeven. LPG price collapse or policy shock pushes market CBM price below economic viability. | Low–Med | Medium | Breakeven CBM price at Year 2 DSCR of 1.25× is ₱50.50/Nm³ — approximately 3% below the base-case ₱52/Nm³, which itself sits at BTU parity to a conservative ₱65/kg LPG reference. Actual DOE-monitored Philippine LPG retail ranges ₱85–130/kg, so effective headroom against real-world LPG pricing is substantially larger. Customers offered 12-month fixed-price contracts locking in demand. No variable interest — debt service is not compounded by LPG volatility. | Low |
| R6 | Market · Slow CBM cylinder uptake. Households or commercial buyers hesitate to switch from familiar LPG. | Medium | Medium | CBM uses standard LPG-compatible cookstoves with a regulator swap-out — no appliance re-purchase required. Target launch customers are commercial kitchens, bakeries, and street-food operators who already track fuel cost closely and will switch for savings. Year-1 modelled at 48% of nameplate, providing cushion. Same cylinder can be returned LPG-compatible if strategy fails. | Low–Med |
| R7 | Operational · Safety incident. Gas leak, compressor failure, or cylinder rupture. | Low | High | Fixed gas-detection (CH₄, H₂S, CO) with auto-trip interlocks. Process zones hazardous-area classified per IEC 60079. Relief systems designed per API 520/521. Mandatory PTWS (Permit-to-Work System) enforced. All operators PSHSB-certified. DOLE compliance throughout. ₱5M public liability insurance budgeted at ~₱65k/yr. | Low |
| R8 | Regulatory · ERC / DOE permit delay. Certification for CBM sale takes longer than budgeted. | Low–Med | Medium | CBM is explicitly covered under the RE Act (RA 9513) and DOE DC 2017-12-0014 (biomethane). Pre-application consultation with DOE-REMB initiated. Parallel tracks: CBM-for-industrial-use permitting runs alongside household-cylinder certification. Twelve-month grace on loan principal absorbs typical delays. | Low–Med |
| R9 | Macro · Peso devaluation on imported equipment. ₱/$ rate spikes before compressor import. | Medium | Low | Equipment supplier has quoted in pesos with FX lock for 90 days. 80% of BOM is locally sourced (civil, electrical, pumps, vessels). Imported content limited to compressor package (~₱3M). Loan itself is peso-denominated — no FX mismatch on debt service. | Low |
| R10 | Proponent · Key-person dependency. Project suffers if key technical lead is unavailable. | Low | Medium | Operations manual and SCADA-logged procedures make plant operable by any competent process operator. Cross-training of two additional engineers funded from OPEX. Commissioning vendor available on call-out retainer for Year 1. Key-person insurance under consideration. | Low |
Aggregate residual risk: After mitigations, no single risk carries a residual rating higher than Low–Medium. This reflects deliberate design choices — redundant cultivation tanks, a mature upgrading technology, a domestic-peso debt structure, conservative Year-1 utilisation, and a 2.43× Year-1 DSCR that absorbs simultaneous stress on multiple parameters before coverage falls below the 1.25× minimum covenant.